China's economic outlook for 2022: experts

2022-03-09 15:51:20 source: CGTN


China announced a new plan for its post-pandemic rebound in 2022, as the country's national lawmakers and political advisors gathered in Beijing to map out development priorities for this year.

 

The world's second-largest economy set the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at around 5.5 percent in 2022, according to the much-anticipated government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday.

 

The GDP growth target is quite aggressive compared with the average 5.1 percent growth of the past two years, Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, said on Monday at a media briefing.

 

Previously UBS forecast that China's economy would grow by 5.4 percent in 2022. "It represents a medium-high rate of growth given our large economic aggregate," Li said, noting the target requires "hard work."

 

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Another major goal, the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio, has been set at 2.8 percent, down from last year's 3.2 percent. China is planning fiscal spending growth of 8.4 percent this year, up from actual fiscal spending growth of 0.3 percent in 2021. It has been a bumpy ride for China's recovery in the past two years and there are unexpected challenges and uncertainties this year.

 

There are three major down-turn pressures for China's economy in 2022 – the pandemic, the real estate sector and the geopolitical risks – Wang said.

 

Under such circumstances, Wang expected pro-easing policies and more measures to stabilize growth, including fiscal policies, monetary and credit policies, property policies, and measures related to carbon emissions and energy.

 

Nomura also viewed the fiscal plan as pro-easing to deliver a growth rebound and said there was no sign of a massive stimulus program, according to a note released on Sunday.

 

Li reiterated that "housing is for living, not for speculation" in the work report, suggesting there is no plan for a large-scale easing or stimulus for the property sector, Nomura said, noting the premier did not mention a "property tax," indicating China is in no rush in this regard, with growth headwinds lingering.

 

Entering 2022, authorities have adopted a string of measures to cope with the pressures, including cutting the interest rates of medium-term lending-facility loans and reverse repurchase as well as reducing the market-based benchmark lending rate.

 

To meet the annual targets, China will retain its proactive fiscal policy and step up implementation of prudent monetary policy, the government work report said, noting efforts will be made to expand the scale of new loans, ensure that increases in money supply and aggregate financing are generally in step with nominal economic growth, and keep the macro leverage ratio generally stable.

 

Editor: Huang Yan

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23915356 China's economic outlook for 2022: experts public html

China announced a new plan for its post-pandemic rebound in 2022, as the country's national lawmakers and political advisors gathered in Beijing to map out development priorities for this year.

 

The world's second-largest economy set the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at around 5.5 percent in 2022, according to the much-anticipated government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday.

 

The GDP growth target is quite aggressive compared with the average 5.1 percent growth of the past two years, Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, said on Monday at a media briefing.

 

Previously UBS forecast that China's economy would grow by 5.4 percent in 2022. "It represents a medium-high rate of growth given our large economic aggregate," Li said, noting the target requires "hard work."

 

经济.jpeg


Another major goal, the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio, has been set at 2.8 percent, down from last year's 3.2 percent. China is planning fiscal spending growth of 8.4 percent this year, up from actual fiscal spending growth of 0.3 percent in 2021. It has been a bumpy ride for China's recovery in the past two years and there are unexpected challenges and uncertainties this year.

 

There are three major down-turn pressures for China's economy in 2022 – the pandemic, the real estate sector and the geopolitical risks – Wang said.

 

Under such circumstances, Wang expected pro-easing policies and more measures to stabilize growth, including fiscal policies, monetary and credit policies, property policies, and measures related to carbon emissions and energy.

 

Nomura also viewed the fiscal plan as pro-easing to deliver a growth rebound and said there was no sign of a massive stimulus program, according to a note released on Sunday.

 

Li reiterated that "housing is for living, not for speculation" in the work report, suggesting there is no plan for a large-scale easing or stimulus for the property sector, Nomura said, noting the premier did not mention a "property tax," indicating China is in no rush in this regard, with growth headwinds lingering.

 

Entering 2022, authorities have adopted a string of measures to cope with the pressures, including cutting the interest rates of medium-term lending-facility loans and reverse repurchase as well as reducing the market-based benchmark lending rate.

 

To meet the annual targets, China will retain its proactive fiscal policy and step up implementation of prudent monetary policy, the government work report said, noting efforts will be made to expand the scale of new loans, ensure that increases in money supply and aggregate financing are generally in step with nominal economic growth, and keep the macro leverage ratio generally stable.

 

Editor: Huang Yan

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