Here are the lessons the West should learn from China's COVID-19 exit strategy to avoid disaster 西方需要向中国学习这些抗疫经验以避免灾难

2020-04-08 07:58:58 source: Business Insider


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The West should draw lessons from Asian countries — especially China — that have successfully flattened the curve of coronavirus infections and deaths.


That's according to a note from analysts at JPMorgan, which warned of a risk of infection rebound when Western countries ease out of widely enforced lockdowns.


The analysts warned against relaxing social distancing measures too quickly. These efforts, they wrote, should continue two weeks after concrete evidence that the infection rate has peaked. 


Italy, which has reported the highest number of coronavirus-related deaths, should not relax its curfew before late April, they wrote. And the US, which has the highest number of infections globally, should not be out of lockdown before mid-May.


The analysts noted that premature lifting of social distancing measures during the 1918 influenza pandemic, more popularly known as the Spanish flu, backfired and caused the second wave of infections.  


Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, along with others, has said COVID-19 is deadlier than the flu. 


Countries shouldn't relax their social distancing measures until they have enough intensive care units and hospital beds available to deal with the second wave of infections, JPMorgan cautioned. 


Identifying people who had contracted and recovered from the virus, through accurate antibody testing, could also speed up a return to normal. These people could start returning to work and normal life, JPMorgan wrote.


The West should use phone data, and fast


JPMorgan also praised the way Asian countries used tech to help them tackle the virus faster. Monitoring coronavirus patients, and issuing warnings to those they had contact with, helped contain the spread.


In China, authorities kept track of people with different QR codes, designating coronavirus patients with a red code. Israel used phone data to trace people infected with COVID-19 or those who have been in contact with others infected. 


There are obvious concerns about privacy here, but JPMorgan suggests Western countries can adapt these techniques and strike an "appropriate balance" between privacy and the use of technology for contact tracing.


Delay school reopening and maintain social distancing even once retail stores open up


The analysts wrote that it might be wise to follow China's lead in delaying school openings for some weeks after lockdown measures are relaxed since children have the potential to transmit the virus. 


And even after restaurants and shops reopen, countries should still limit how many people can enter particular spaces. The analysts warned against resuming mass gatherings like concerts and conferences until after the summer. 


摩根大通的一份报告指出,西方国家应该向亚洲国家——特别是中国学习,因为这些国家已经成功降低了新冠病毒的感染和死亡。该报告警示,当西方国家逐渐解除广泛实施的封锁时,感染风险可能会反弹。


分析人士警告称,不要过快地放松社交疏远措施。他们写道,在有具体证据表明感染率见顶两周后,这些隔离措施还是应该继续下去。


报告写道,报告新冠肺炎死亡人数最高的意大利,在4月底前不应该放松警惕;而对于全球感染人数最多的美国,不应在5月中旬之前解除封锁。


分析人士指出,在1918年流感大流行的时候,过早取消社交疏远措施使得结果适得其反,引发了第二波的感染。美国国家过敏与传染病研究所所长安东尼·福奇博士和其他专家说,新冠肺炎比流感更致命。摩根大通警告称,各国在没有足够用于应对第二波感染的重症监护病房和医院床位之前,不应放松社会疏离措施。通过精确的抗体检测,确诊感染的人和治愈的人也可以加速回归正常生活。摩根大通写道,这些人可能会开始重返工作和开始正常生活。


西方应该尽快使用智能手机进行抗疫


摩根大通还赞扬了亚洲国家利用科技帮助应对病毒的方式。监测新冠肺炎患者,并向他们接触过的人发出警告,这样做有助于控制病毒的传播。在中国,有关部门对不同二维码的人进行跟踪,用一个红色的二维码标记冠状病毒患者。以色列使用电话数据追踪新冠肺炎感染者或与他人有过接触的人。


当然,这里显然存在对隐私的担忧,但摩根大通认为,西方国家可以采用这些技术,在隐私和使用联系人追踪技术之间取得“适当的平衡”。


即使零售商店开张了,也要推迟开学,保持社交距离


分析人士写道,在封锁措施放松后,效仿中国推迟开学时间的做法可能是明智的,因为儿童有可能传播这种病毒。即使餐馆和商店重新开张,各国仍应限制进入特定场所的人数。分析人士警告说,在夏季之前不要恢复音乐会和会议等大型集会活动。




(Executive Editor: Ye Ke)

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11859277 Here are the lessons the West should learn from China's COVID-19 exit strategy to avoid disaster 西方需要向中国学习这些抗疫经验以避免灾难 public html

1.jpg


The West should draw lessons from Asian countries — especially China — that have successfully flattened the curve of coronavirus infections and deaths.


That's according to a note from analysts at JPMorgan, which warned of a risk of infection rebound when Western countries ease out of widely enforced lockdowns.


The analysts warned against relaxing social distancing measures too quickly. These efforts, they wrote, should continue two weeks after concrete evidence that the infection rate has peaked. 


Italy, which has reported the highest number of coronavirus-related deaths, should not relax its curfew before late April, they wrote. And the US, which has the highest number of infections globally, should not be out of lockdown before mid-May.


The analysts noted that premature lifting of social distancing measures during the 1918 influenza pandemic, more popularly known as the Spanish flu, backfired and caused the second wave of infections.  


Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, along with others, has said COVID-19 is deadlier than the flu. 


Countries shouldn't relax their social distancing measures until they have enough intensive care units and hospital beds available to deal with the second wave of infections, JPMorgan cautioned. 


Identifying people who had contracted and recovered from the virus, through accurate antibody testing, could also speed up a return to normal. These people could start returning to work and normal life, JPMorgan wrote.


The West should use phone data, and fast


JPMorgan also praised the way Asian countries used tech to help them tackle the virus faster. Monitoring coronavirus patients, and issuing warnings to those they had contact with, helped contain the spread.


In China, authorities kept track of people with different QR codes, designating coronavirus patients with a red code. Israel used phone data to trace people infected with COVID-19 or those who have been in contact with others infected. 


There are obvious concerns about privacy here, but JPMorgan suggests Western countries can adapt these techniques and strike an "appropriate balance" between privacy and the use of technology for contact tracing.


Delay school reopening and maintain social distancing even once retail stores open up


The analysts wrote that it might be wise to follow China's lead in delaying school openings for some weeks after lockdown measures are relaxed since children have the potential to transmit the virus. 


And even after restaurants and shops reopen, countries should still limit how many people can enter particular spaces. The analysts warned against resuming mass gatherings like concerts and conferences until after the summer. 


摩根大通的一份报告指出,西方国家应该向亚洲国家——特别是中国学习,因为这些国家已经成功降低了新冠病毒的感染和死亡。该报告警示,当西方国家逐渐解除广泛实施的封锁时,感染风险可能会反弹。


分析人士警告称,不要过快地放松社交疏远措施。他们写道,在有具体证据表明感染率见顶两周后,这些隔离措施还是应该继续下去。


报告写道,报告新冠肺炎死亡人数最高的意大利,在4月底前不应该放松警惕;而对于全球感染人数最多的美国,不应在5月中旬之前解除封锁。


分析人士指出,在1918年流感大流行的时候,过早取消社交疏远措施使得结果适得其反,引发了第二波的感染。美国国家过敏与传染病研究所所长安东尼·福奇博士和其他专家说,新冠肺炎比流感更致命。摩根大通警告称,各国在没有足够用于应对第二波感染的重症监护病房和医院床位之前,不应放松社会疏离措施。通过精确的抗体检测,确诊感染的人和治愈的人也可以加速回归正常生活。摩根大通写道,这些人可能会开始重返工作和开始正常生活。


西方应该尽快使用智能手机进行抗疫


摩根大通还赞扬了亚洲国家利用科技帮助应对病毒的方式。监测新冠肺炎患者,并向他们接触过的人发出警告,这样做有助于控制病毒的传播。在中国,有关部门对不同二维码的人进行跟踪,用一个红色的二维码标记冠状病毒患者。以色列使用电话数据追踪新冠肺炎感染者或与他人有过接触的人。


当然,这里显然存在对隐私的担忧,但摩根大通认为,西方国家可以采用这些技术,在隐私和使用联系人追踪技术之间取得“适当的平衡”。


即使零售商店开张了,也要推迟开学,保持社交距离


分析人士写道,在封锁措施放松后,效仿中国推迟开学时间的做法可能是明智的,因为儿童有可能传播这种病毒。即使餐馆和商店重新开张,各国仍应限制进入特定场所的人数。分析人士警告说,在夏季之前不要恢复音乐会和会议等大型集会活动。




(Executive Editor: Ye Ke)

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countries;data;analysts;phone;JPMorgan;relaxing;people;deaths;Asian;warned